Cases / COVID-19

Paragon Case: Fighting COVID-19 Success Story

Supporting a project in the battle to overcome the largest health crisis in 100 years was a great responsibility made PARAGON proud of reaching its goal of helping to save lives!

COVID-19 Case: Mathematical Intelligence Helping to Save Lives

COVID-19 PANDEMIC. This is certainly an expression that this generation and the next to come will never forget – for the devastating effect it is having around the world.

In just a few days, billions of people were isolated in their homes, the biggest cities on the planet were left empty, nations closed their borders and the global economy suffered a collapse from which it will take a years to recover.

In Brazil, the challenges multiplied with the continental dimensions, the known infrastructure issues and almost 5,600 municipalities waiting for what would resemble war operations in order to face a situation for which they were not prepared.

It was in this scenario that the MINISTRY OF INFRASTRUCTURE and PARAGON established a partnership to bring 240 million masks and other PPE items to hospital beds throughout Brazil. 

PARAGON, represented by its technical staff of excellence, is happy to contribute with its data science expertise, so that health professionals could face the pandemic with ideal conditions of safety at work.

Let’s talk about another success story and the preservation of lives

COVID-19 Case: The Challenges

THE MINISTRY OF INFRASTRUCTURE was the federal agency responsible for the first and strategically crucial operation against the Coronavirus in March 2020:

It was necessary to define, within a few days:

The lead time was even more challenging: 60 days. However, the ideal period was shorter: that of preventing lives from being lost as the pandemic grew.

The major steps of this operation would be:

Major project critical factors

What were Paragon’s challenges?

THE MINISTRY OF INFRASTRUCTURE invited PARAGON to develop a logistic planning solution that covered all the variables and uncertainties of such a complex project.

One thing was certain: math and data science would be the basis of an algorithmic and scenario-simulation solution for modeling large-volume data in the search of the best – and fastest – alternatives.

The work started with the study of the main available and to be gathered databases.

Brazilian air network

Through a partnership with ANAC, an in-depth study was carried out to update the numbers of the Brazilian air network, considering the drastic reduction in flights across the country.

The government’s assumption was to use the idle capacity of commercial aircrafts, removing the passengers seats to gain space – what was also necessary to calculate the available area in each plane.

Delivery logistics in all municipalities

Over 90% of flights were canceled and many locations were left with no option to receive the products by air. It was necessary to know:

With the above data and the demands by location, it was possible to establish the required travel times for each region and mode (or combination of modes).

National healthcare data

The MINISTRY OF HEALTH made available a census of hospitals and beds that was dynamically updated, considering the demands that the disease’s behavior created at all times.

A survey about the demand for PPE was also carried out for the COVID-19 scenario, based on Chinese and European protocols, which were already in a more advanced stage of fighting the pandemic.

COVID-19 Case: Solutions

With such a rich and complex universe of data, PARAGON generated a model of consumption for products, with different demand scenarios based on conservative, average and aggressive contamination projections.

With the disease contamination rate assigned in each scenario, it was possible to determine the consumption of each PPE item by Intensive Care Unit, hospital, location and distribution center.

A large logistic model was created with a multimodal distribution scenario, with planes, trucks and vessels. In the study, 47 distribution centers were defined, having Guarulhos as a base.

An algorithm was used to match the numbers of disease progression within the country, the expectations of new cases and the consumption of PPE in each hospital to create the supply management for a network of 2,000 hospitals.

COVID-19 Case: Results

Throughout the work, PARAGON used the ARENA software to generate thousands of results for multiple scenarios, combined with other data visualization and process mapping tools. 

Among the thousands of results, one was impressive: 200 million masks would be needed for 60 days of consumption. And the ideal replenishment period was 2 days.

In addition to using the simulation software, knowledge sharing was carried out, training employees from different ministries so that they could use the technology after the implementation and the support phase given by PARAGON.

The project with the MINISTRY OF INFRASTRUCTURE was successful, with all transport and distribution logistics planning delivered.

COVID-19 Case: Brazilian Government Testimonial

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